AI and the dot-com lesson
AI may transform the economy. The return on an AI investment is a separate question. That distinction is the most useful lesson I take from the dot-com era.
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34 notes
AI can help with research. It cannot own the decision.
AI makes it easier to produce a convincing answer. Checking whether that answer deserves our confidence still takes work.
AI needs electricity. Who benefits?
Behind every AI model is physical infrastructure. Electricity, cooling and grid connections help explain why this story reaches far beyond chipmakers.
Property: look beyond the brochure
A property brochure sells a possibility. The decision becomes clearer when the costs, rental assumptions and exit options sit on the same page.
An IPO grey-market premium is not a promise
An IPO can attract attention long before its shares trade. I prefer to separate that excitement from what the business is worth.
Small instalments, one real bill
A purchase split into four payments is still one purchase. The challenge is seeing all those smaller commitments together.
A crypto stock is not the same as Bitcoin
Buying a crypto-related share means owning a company. Its costs, funding and management decisions come with the exposure.
Solana: the network and the token
Solana is both a technology story and a token story. Understanding the connection starts with keeping those two ideas distinct.
NFTs: ownership, utility and the resale question
An NFT tells us something about a token. To understand its value, we also need to know the rights, the service and the potential buyer behind it.
Phoenix Group: questions behind the crypto exposure
With Phoenix Group, the questions begin with the business behind the crypto exposure: what it earns, what it spends and how it funds growth.
Presight AI: reading past the AI headline
AI can be an interesting company story. For Presight, I want to connect that story to contracts, collections and the cash left in the business.
Why oil, rates and currencies move markets
Oil, interest rates and currencies connect the markets I follow. The same change can help one business and put pressure on another.
Nvidia: from graphics to the AI conversation
Nvidia’s journey connects gaming hardware, developer tools and AI infrastructure. It also raises a familiar investing question: how much future success is already expected?
AI in the UAE: what changes in everyday work?
Living and working in the UAE, I’m interested in where AI makes everyday tasks genuinely more useful—and where a person still needs to check the result.
UAE air taxis: from demonstration to everyday service
Air taxis are an exciting transport idea. Turning that idea into a dependable everyday service involves much more than an aircraft.
De-dollarisation: ask which use of the dollar
Trade, borrowing, reserves and savings are different uses of a currency. A headline about the dollar is clearer when we identify which one is changing.
Mutual funds: look inside the wrapper
A fund name gives only a first impression. The holdings, costs and overlap with other investments reveal much more.
Gold: what role is it playing?
Before asking where gold might go next, I find it useful to ask why someone wants to hold it—and in what form.
US markets: follow the business behind the ticker
US markets offer a wide range of businesses to follow. My starting point is what a company does, who pays it and what the share price assumes.
UAE markets: more than the oil headline
ADX and DFM bring together businesses with very different drivers. Local familiarity helps, but the disclosures still deserve a careful read.
India markets: strong stories still need numbers
India’s growth creates plenty of compelling business stories. Understanding an individual share still means looking at cash, competition and the price.
Bitcoin: understand the asset before the price
Bitcoin’s price attracts attention. Its design, custody arrangements and risks deserve just as much of it.
Ethereum: use, supply and the price question
Ethereum supports a network of applications. How that activity connects to demand for ETH is the more interesting question for an investor.
Polkadot: a network thesis needs evidence
Polkadot’s ambition is to connect blockchains. The next questions concern adoption, token use and evidence that the network solves a real problem.
Crypto: a short guide to the different ideas
Bitcoin, stablecoins and smart-contract networks sit under the same broad label. They serve different purposes and carry different risks.
The AI buildout: follow the spending, then the return
One company’s AI spending becomes another company’s revenue. Following that money helps separate a broad theme from an individual business.
Indian AI stocks: what is the actual exposure?
An AI reference in a company presentation can mean several things. I want to understand what customers actually buy and how the economics change.
Private credit: the questions behind the yield
A private loan may have no daily market price. That can make its reported value look steady without making the underlying risk small.
Gold, currencies and the uncertainty story
Gold rarely moves for one reason alone. Currencies, rates and different sources of demand give a more useful starting point than a single dramatic explanation.
Quantum computing: progress and commercial proof
Quantum computing invites big expectations. I’m interested in the distance between a technical milestone, a useful application and a sustainable business.
IonQ: separate the science from the share price
IonQ is easier to assess through its own milestones and financial statements than through comparisons with a past stock-market winner.
Micron: AI demand meets the memory cycle
The AI story has brought new attention to memory. Micron still needs to be understood through product mix, manufacturing costs and the supply cycle.
Super Micro: revenue growth is only one question
A growing server market can create opportunity. For Super Micro, revenue, margins and working capital need to be read together.
Saudi Arabia and batteries: follow the supply chain
A battery supply chain is a series of businesses, not one commodity trade. Saudi Arabia’s industrial ambitions are more useful to discuss through those separate stages.
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