A chain of different businesses
Resources in the ground are only the beginning. Extraction, processing, transport and customer qualification all affect whether a project can become commercially useful.
Ambition versus operation
An announced investment or partnership is different from a financed project, an operating facility or profitable production. Each milestone reduces some uncertainty, but does not remove all of it.
Commodity prices can change the economics
Demand for batteries and the price of lithium do not move in a straight line together. Supply additions, inventories and technology choices can alter the balance.
A question to carry forward
What evidence would change the explanation? Following more than one indicator can keep a convincing narrative from becoming a fixed belief.
Further reading
Personal view only. Not investment advice. I may hold assets discussed, and my views or holdings may change. This is not a recommendation or a complete investment assessment.