From the archive
Archived: Geopolitics and markets: archived June 2025 note
The earlier post considered possible market responses to conflict and uncertainty.
Archived topic · 2025
This is a shortened archive summary. The original figures, trade levels and forward-looking calls are no longer presented as current guidance.
This is a shortened archive summary. The original figures, trade levels and forward-looking calls are no longer presented as current guidance.
A scenario, not a forecast
The original piece set out possible paths for oil, supply chains and investor sentiment. Those scenarios were not confirmed outcomes.
What changed
Old macro estimates and suggested portfolio strategies have been removed. This site no longer presents allocation guidance based on a reader’s risk profile.
The enduring question
What channel links an event to a company’s revenue, costs or financing? That is more useful to understand than assuming every geopolitical shock produces the same market reaction.