Published on August 10, 2025
As we enter the week of August 11-15, 2025, global markets are navigating a landscape shaped by escalating trade tensions, including new U.S. tariffs on imports from India and potential sanctions on Russia, which are fostering a risk-off sentiment across equities. U.S. stocks closed the prior week positively, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high amid tech rallies, but warnings from firms like UBS signal potential downturns due to slowing growth. In India, benchmarks like the Nifty and Sensex have endured their longest weekly losing streak in five years, exacerbated by tariff impacts and muted earnings. Middle Eastern markets, particularly in the UAE, show resilience with gains driven by higher oil prices and trade optimism, though mixed corporate results add volatility. Crypto markets are wobbling into August amid macroeconomic uncertainties but remain buoyed by institutional inflows and events like Ethereum NYC, with Bitcoin eyeing $150K potential and Ethereum breaking $4,000. Investors should monitor key economic releases, including U.S. CPI and retail sales, for clues on Federal Reserve rate cuts, while geopolitical developmentsâsuch as the Trump-Putin summit on August 15âcould trigger sharp movements.
This report provides a forward-looking analysis, blending recent performance recaps, upcoming catalysts, and strategic insights to help traders and investors position effectively. All data is sourced from reliable market analyses as of August 10, 2025.
The week ahead is light on major global disruptions but heavy on data-driven volatility. U.S. tariffs continue to ripple through emerging markets, with India facing direct hits on exports like oil and textiles, potentially straining bilateral trade deals. Geopolitical risks, including Middle East escalations and the U.S.-Russia summit, could amplify uncertainty. Oil prices are edging higher, supporting energy-heavy regions like the UAE, while crypto benefits from institutional accumulation despite tariff-induced caution.
Key cross-market themes:
U.S. equities ended the prior week on a high note, with the S&P 500 up 2.4%, the Dow gaining 1.4%, and the Nasdaq closing at a record amid Apple-led tech rallies. However, valuations are stretched, concentrated in mega-caps like the "Magnificent Five," and UBS warns of a down month as economic growth slows. Tariffs on global partners add headwinds, but resilient corporate earnings (exceeding expectations) and AI-driven optimism provide tailwinds.
The week features inflation data and consumer indicators, pivotal for Fed policy. No major releases on Monday, but mid-week CPI could dictate sentimentâif softer than expected, expect equity upside.
| Date | Time (ET) | Event | Importance | Forecast | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | 6:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jul) | Medium | 93.5 | Gauge of business sentiment; higher could support growth narratives. |
| Aug 13 | 8:30 AM | CPI (Jul) | High | 0.2% MoM | Core inflation watch; below forecast could fuel rate cut bets, lifting stocks. |
| Aug 14 | 8:30 AM | PPI (Jul) | High | 0.1% MoM | Producer prices; tame data supports disinflation theme. |
| Aug 14 | 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 9) | Medium | 235K | Labor market health; rising claims may signal slowdown, pressuring equities. |
| Aug 15 | 8:30 AM | Retail Sales (Jul) | High | 0.3% MoM | Consumer spending; strong figures could ease recession fears. |
| Aug 15 | 10:00 AM | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) | Medium | 66.9 | Preliminary read; improving mood boosts market confidence. |
Overall, expect choppy trading with upside bias if data aligns with cooling inflationâtarget S&P 500 at 5,800 by week-end.
Indian benchmarks suffered a brutal prior week, with the Nifty and Sensex dropping ~1% on Friday alone, marking six straight weekly lossesâthe longest streak in five years. U.S. tariffs on Indian imports (linked to Russian oil ties) and FII outflows (âš10,000 Cr+ weekly) fueled the sell-off, compounded by muted Q1 earnings. However, rebound potential exists if RBI holds rates steady and global risk appetite improves.
Focus on inflation and GDP previews; no RBI meeting, but data could influence September policy.
| Date | Time (IST) | Event | Importance | Forecast | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | 5:30 PM | CPI (Jul) | High | 3.6% YoY | Within RBI target; lower could ease pressure, supporting equities. |
| Aug 14 | TBD | WPI (Jul) | Medium | 2.0% YoY | Wholesale inflation; tame figures aid disinflation narrative. |
| Aug 15 | TBD | Trade Balance (Jul) | Medium | -$20B | Exports watch amid tariffs; widening deficit hurts rupee/stocks. |
| Aug 15 | TBD | GDP Preview (Q2) | High | 7.0% YoY | Early signals; strong growth could counter tariff drag. |
Markets may open flat-negative on Monday; watch for reversal around August 13 data.
Gulf equities showed strength last week, with UAE indexes up 0.8-0.9% on oil price gains and trade optimism. Dubai pulled back from 17-year highs but remains buoyant amid state-led projects. Mixed earnings and U.S. tariffs on regional allies (e.g., India-Russia oil links) introduce caution, but IMF's upgraded 3.5% GDP forecast for 2025 supports growth.
Light calendar; oil prices and geopolitics dominate. No major UAE data, but regional PMIs and OPEC signals matter.
| Date | Event | Importance | Forecast | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11-15 | OPEC Monthly Report (Aug 12 est.) | High | N/A | Oil supply outlook; higher prices boost energy stocks. |
| Aug 13 | UAE PMI (Jul) | Medium | 55.0 | Business activity; expansion supports Dubai/Abu Dhabi gains. |
| Aug 15 | Saudi CPI (Jul) | Medium | 1.5% YoY | Inflation watch; low figures aid GCC recovery. |
| Ongoing | Middle East Tensions | High | N/A | Escalations (e.g., Gaza) could spike volatility. |
Expect steady gains, with DFM targeting 4,500 if oil holds firm.
Crypto wobbles into the week amid tariff risks but shows resilience: Global cap back above $3.87T, with ETH up 4.6% past $4,000 on ETF inflows ($461M). BTC holds $114K-$117K, with $403M ETF buys; institutions added $4.16B to ETH since July. Key events could catalyze moves, including macro data and unlocks.
Notable Highlights:
Trade Idea: Long ETH above $4,200 targeting $4,500; monitor BTC for $120K breakout post-CPI.
This week offers data-driven opportunities amid tariff shadowsâposition defensively in U.S./India equities, opportunistically in UAE/energy, and bullishly in crypto if macro softens. Stay agile: Trump-Putin summit (Aug 15) could be a wildcard. For personalized strategies, consult Falcon Trades at zalwora.ae.
